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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Falls Further Ahead of Tonight's Budget

Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,003 face-to-face interviews.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell a further 2.4% to 103.7 in the week ending 11 May. Confidence has fallen sharply in the weeks leading up to today’s Federal Budget release and is down almost 11% over the past 3 weeks when various policy leaks began receiving significant media attention.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is now at its lowest level since May 2009. Although the current consumer spending environment is quite different to that during the Global Financial Crisis, recent developments suggest some possible softening in consumer spending going forward. Of note, the sub-index of confidence - perceptions of ‘financial situation compared to a year ago’ - which is most correlated with households’ spending decisions fell sharply last week (- 5.7%). While this series can be quite volatile, it has noticeably weakened over the past 2 months. ‘Financial situations next year’ also fell relatively sharply (-4.3%), although moves across all other sub-indices were more modest, particularly ‘economic conditions next year’ which was unchanged last week but is around 20% lower than three weeks ago.

At this stage, ANZ’s bottom line for the household consumption outlook remains that consumer spending will improve this year and next, although tonight’s budget has the ability to drag on the speed of that recovery.

ANZ Chief Economist (Australia) Ivan Colhoun said:

“The ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence has weakened sharply over the past three weeks as a number of budget initiatives have been leaked and covered closely in the media. Although the Government appears to be preparing the community for a ‘horror’ budget, ANZ’s view is that the budget will be tough rather than horrific and that fiscal policy is likely to be tightened progressively over the next few years.

“Regardless of what transpires tonight, this weekly index will be an important first gauge of the Budget’s impact on consumers. Developments in this series should be watched to garner how transitory the recent dip in consumer confidence will be.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - May 13, 2014

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - May 13, 2014

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - May 13, 2014

Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Weekly Pulse.

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.