The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in June was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index fell by 0.5pts to 143.5 in June, setting another new record low.
- In terms of personal finances, 41.9% (down 0.7ppts from May) of respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially in June compared with the same time last year. Meanwhile, 13.0% (up 2.6ppts) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 61.5% (up 1.8ppts) expect their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 8.1% (down 0.8ppt) who expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ next year rose to 59.9% (up 1.8ppts), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ inched up to a new record high of 11.9% (up 0.1ppt). On longer-term economic performance, 65.3% (down 2ppts) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 12.2% (up 1.6ppts) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- In June, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items now rose to 41.7% (up 1.8ppts), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so also increased to 7.8% (up 1.7ppts).
- Inflation expectations fell sharply to 3.36% (down 0.84ppts) in June.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan China’s Consumer Confidence reached yet another record low. It appears that the strong performance of the stock market has not translated into an increase in financial confidence and more respondents are experiencing worse financial conditions compared with June 2014. On the other hand, confidence on the Chinese economy remains relatively robust, with almost 60% of respondents expecting to see ‘good times’ next year.
"The June consumer sentiment survey could coincide with rather sluggish growth momentum in China. Indeed, the Apr-May activity data suggest China could see a sub-7% growth in Q2, requiring both proactive fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy to give the economy a boost. Aside from targeted easing measures, we expect the PBoC to further cut policy interest rate by 25bps this month. If capital outflow continues, the central bank could also lower the reserve requirement ratio by another 100bps in the remainder of the year.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Release PDF - June 2015.
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