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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Rebounded in October
October 21 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in October was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index rebounded 1.2pts to 139.6 in October, from the record low of 138.4 in September.
- In terms of personal finances, 42.8% (up 2.4ppts from September) of respondents in October said that their families are ‘better off’ financially, compared with the same time last year. Meanwhile, 16.9% (up 1.6ppts) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 51.3% (down 1.3ppts) expect their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 7.4% (down 0.4ppt) who expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ next year rose to 58.3% (up 1ppt), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ declined to 13.2% (down 1.7ppts). On longer-term economic performance, 67.1% (up 3.0ppts) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 12.8% (down 0.6ppts) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- In October, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items increased to 38.0% (up 0.5ppt), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so slightly rose to 9.2% (down 0.6ppt).
- Inflation expectations declined to 3.55% (down 0.14ppts) in October.
“The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence rebounded in October from the record low last month as consumers turned less pessimistic on China’s economic outlook. Consumers are playing an increasingly important role in the economy, as indicated by consumption and service industry growth indicators. While it is too early to ascertain a trend, the rebound in consumer confidence is an encouraging sign for the economy amidst a slowing industrial sector. We believe that the services sector will continue to outperform the manufacturing sector, supporting Q4 GDP growth and helping China obtain a growth rate at around 6.8% this year.
"However, our survey result also indicates that inflation expectations continued to trend lower. In addition, CPI inflation moderated in September while PPI remained negative. By our estimates, China’s GDP deflator index has contracted by -0.66% y/y in Q3, suggesting the economy has fallen into deflation. Thus, we maintain our forecast that China will deliver another reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50bps in Q4. If deflationary pressure intensifies, the central bank may also adjust benchmark interest rates lower, especially the lending rate.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2015.
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