ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Edged Down in October

• ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence dropped to 91.1 (down 0.3pts) in October, much lower than 97.3 in October 2014. The fall in consumer confidence this month was primarily driven by less confidence about Taiwan’s economic conditions over the next 12 months.
  
  
• In terms of personal finances now just 5.5% (down 1.3ppts) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest level for this indicator for over a year since May 2014), compared with 27.7% (down 1.8ppts) that said their families are ‘worse off’.
  
  
• Now 10.1% (down 1.5ppts) of respondents expected their families will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest record for this indicator for over a year since July 2014), compared with 17.0% (down 2.7ppts) that expected their families will be ‘worse off’ financially.
  
  
• In addition 23.1% (down 3.8ppts) of respondents expected Taiwan will have ‘good times’ economically over the next 12 months (the lowest record for this indicator for over a year since May 2014), while 25.8% (up 2.5ppts) of respondents expected ‘bad times’ economically (the highest level for this indicator for over a year since July 2014).
  
  
• Now only 19.4% (down 2.8ppts) expected Taiwan will have ‘good times’ economically during the next five years (the lowest record for this indicator) and 16.5% (down 3.0ppts) of respondents expected Taiwan will have ‘bad times’.
  
  
• In addition only 7.6% (up 0.9ppt) of respondents said now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items in Taiwan, while less than a quarter, 23.2% (down 2.0ppts), of respondents said now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
  
  
• The inflation expectations fell to 1.2% (down 0.7ppt) in October.

“Household sentiment seems to have stabilised as stock market appears to have stabilised. Even the Q3 GDP will have likely contracted on the yearly basis for the first time since 2009, domestic demand remains intact. In addition, tourism offers a good buffer to the labour market and unemployment rates stay at historically low level of 3.8%. The cyclical downturn of global trade has not translated into a significant economic contraction in Taiwan.

"Against this macroeconomic backdrop, we are confidence in our view on Taiwan’s monetary policy. Although the central bank cut interest rate recently, the policy interest rate is just a symbolic gesture indicating the monetary policy stance of the CBC. Market interest rates have been very low. Through window guidance, policymakers can influence interest rates offered by banks. If the domestic sentiment holds up, the CBC will likely hold policy rate in December.”

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2015.