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ANZ-Roy Morgan Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Rises in December to 135.9
December 15 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Index is based on interviews with 1,000 people per month and provides a robust, representative sample that is quota-controlled by gender and age.
ANZ Senior Economist Raymond Yeung said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Hong Kong Consumer Confidence rose to 135.9 (up 2.6pts) in December, higher than the long term average of 133.3. The rise was driven by a rise in confidence across all components of the survey except economic conditions in Hong Kong over the next 12 months, which was unchanged.
- In terms of personal finances now 39% (up 1ppt) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, compared to 9% (down 2ppts) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
- Now 42% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their families will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 8% (down 2ppts) that expect their families to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- Thinking of economic conditions in Hong Kong going forward, more than half of respondents (55%; unchanged) expect Hong Kong will have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months, compared to 13% (unchanged) that expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Now 57% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect Hong Kong will have ‘good times’ financially during the next five years and 14% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.
- Now 36% (up 4ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items in Hong Kong and only 6% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
- Inflation expectations eased further to 3.3% (up 0.2ppts from November).
“It is a surprising outcome. Both the economic data flows and tumbling stock market point to a shaky domestic confidence in Hong Kong. The impact of more willingness to buy major household items definitely has overwhelmingly distorted the broad picture.
"As the Fed is on the brink of hiking interest rates, property prices have already started to react in the past few weeks. The market mostly believes in the reversal of property fortune in Hong Kong next year. This will likely weigh on local consumption due to the negative wealth effect. We see the downside risk to our GDP forecast of 2.5% next year.”
Click to view the latest, and the final, ANZ-Roy Morgan Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Release PDF - December 2015.
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