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ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence falls in December to 90.5
December 15 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Taiwan. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of December 2015.
ANZ’s Senior Economist Raymond Yeung said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence fell to 90.5 (down 0.8pts) in December, and is now further below its long-term average of 91.9, and well below its level a year ago in December 2014 (96.3). Households seem to be less confident about Taiwan’s medium-term economic conditions.
- In terms of personal finances, now 6% (down 1ppt) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, the equally lowest level since May 2014, compared to 27% (up 2ppts) that said their families are ‘worse off’.
- Now 13% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their families will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to under a quarter (23%; up 3ppts) that expected their families would be ‘worse off’ financially – the equally highest level since August 2014.
- In addition, 24% (up 5ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan will have ‘good times’ economically over the next 12 months, while 25% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘bad times’ economically.
- Now 20% (down 2ppts) expect Taiwan will have ‘good times’ financially during the next five years and 24% (up 5ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan will have ‘bad times’ financially – the equally highest proportion since April 2014.
- Also, 12% (up 3ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items in Taiwan (the equally highest proportion for this indicator since April 2015), while just under a quarter – 24% (up 3ppts) – of respondents say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
- Inflation expectations rose to 0.8%, down from November’s 1.3%.
“This is the lowest level of household sentiment we have seen since April this year. What’s happened in the past half year has hit residents’ assessment of the future economic outlook. We start to worry about its impact on domestic consumption.
"We have recently changed our interest rate forecast for Taiwan and believe the central bank will cut interest rates by 0.25% in the first half of 2016. They may not be in that much of a hurry to do so this Friday because of the uncertainty stemming from the likely rate hike by the US Fed. But our consumer confidence data is consistent with our policy rate call.”
Click to view the latest, and the final, ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - December 2015.
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