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TNS and Opinium (& Boris Johnson) big winners out of UK’s ‘Brexit’ Referendum

The majority of pollsters predicting the result of the UK’s referendum on whether to remain a member of the European Union or leave the EU got the result wrong with their final polls released in the week before Thursday’s referendum. The final result shows 51.9% of Britons opted to leave the EU compared to 48.1% that wanted to remain in the EU. This was a close result, but of the six polls released on the day before the referendum only two correctly predicted the majority of Britons would vote for so-called ‘Brexit’.

The majority of pollsters predicting the result of the UK’s referendum on whether to remain a member of the European Union or leave the EU got the result wrong with their final polls released in the week before Thursday’s referendum. The final result shows 51.9% of Britons opted to leave the EU compared to 48.1% that wanted to remain in the EU. This was a close result, but of the six polls released on the day before the referendum only two correctly predicted the majority of Britons would vote for so-called ‘Brexit’.

The two pollsters to correctly predict the narrow victory for the Leave campaign were TNS which produced a final polling result of 43% Leave cf. 41% Remain cf. 16% Undecided/ Not voting – equal to a result of 51% Leave cf. 49% Remain if Undecideds and those not voting are removed and Opinium which produced a final polling result of 45% Leave cf. 44% Remain cf. 11% Undecided/ Won’t say – also equal to a result of 51% Leave cf. 49% Remain when Undecideds and those that won’t say are removed. Both of these polls were conducted via on online methodology. Of the four polls that predicted a victory for Remain, two were conducted online and two were conducted via telephone.

The final results of the ‘Brexit’ referendum show that using a methodology that provides the most accurate possible measure of a populations key demographics – which includes polling people who may not be easily reached by traditional polling methods such as the landline telephone – is the key to producing an accurate representation of the people’s feelings on a matter.

Roy Morgan believes our multi-mode polling methodology that utilises an addressed based probability sample including face-to-face interviewing, landline telephones and mobile telephones, and can incorporate online polling as well, is the best way to provide an accurate representation of how the population thinks about a given matter.


Final Referendum Result on ‘Brexit’

51.9% Leave cf. 48.1% Remain

17,410,742 Votes for Leave cf. 16,141,241 Votes to Remain

263 U.K. Regions Vote to Leave cf. 119 U.K. Regions Vote to Remain

Financial Times Round-up of all ‘Brexit’ Polls

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Final Polling Results for ‘Brexit’ Polls


TNS

43% Leave cf. 41% Remain cf. 16% Undecided/ Not Voting

51% Leave cf. 49% Remain with Undecideds and not voting removed.

2,320 British adults. Thursday June 16th – Wednesday June 22nd, 2016. Online poll.

http://www.tnsglobal.co.uk/press-release/turnout-key-eu-referendum


Opinium

45% Leave cf. 44% Remain cf. 11% Undecided/ Won’t say.

51% Leave cf. 49% Remain with Undecided and won’t say removed.

3,011 British adults. Monday June 20th – Wednesday June 22nd, 2016. Online poll.

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-22nd-june-2016

 

Ipsos-Mori Poll

52% Remain cf. 48% Leave

546 British adults 18+ Tuesday June 21st & Wednesday June 22nd, 2016. Telephone poll.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3753/Final-EU-referendum-poll-update.aspx


YouGov

51% Remain cf. 49% Leave

3,766 British adults 18+. Wednesday June 22nd, 2016. Online poll.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/yougov-day-poll/


ComRes – Daily Mail / ITV

48% Remain cf. 42% Leave cf. 11% Undecided.

54% Remain cf. 46% Leave

1,032 British adults. Friday June 17th – Wednesday June 22nd, 2016. Telephone poll.

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/daily-mail-itv-news-eu-referendum-poll-2/


Populus

55% Remain cf. 45% Leave.

4,700 British adults 18+. Online poll.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk


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