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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges to 113.4 (down 5.2pts) after shockingly weak GDP data
December 13 2016
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,054 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend December 10/11, 2016.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell a sharp 4.4% to 113.4 this week. The headline index is now at its lowest level since May. The details were negative with views on ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ and ‘now is a good time to buy a household item’ showing the sharpest declines.
ANZ Senior Economist Jo Masters commented:
- Households’ views towards their finances compared to a year ago edged down 0.7%, while households’ views towards their future finances slipped 2.1%. Both sub-indices remain well above their long run averages.
- Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months plummeted 11.7%, bringing the index to its lowest level since February. Household views of the economic outlook in the next five years fell a more modest 1.7%.
- Household views on whether ‘now is a good time to buy a household item’ fell a sharp 6.2% this week, bringing it to the lowest level since late January.
“It is not surprising to see a sharp fall in consumer confidence after the shockingly weak Q3 GDP result, which clearly hit confidence in the near term economic outlook. Encouragingly, confidence about the medium-term economic outlook fell a much more modest 1.7%, while confidence around personal finances remains well above long run averages.
"We expect the weakness in Q3 economic growth to be temporary. The recent pickup in retail sales, combined with still-elevated confidence around future finances, suggests consumer spending will likely improve in Q4. Moreover, higher commodity prices should support profits, and non-mining investment in NSW and Victoria is strengthening.
"Looking forward, the labour market report on Thursday has the potential to impact consumer confidence this week. We are expecting solid employment growth in November, but confidence is vulnerable to a weaker than expected report.”
Click here to view the PDF of the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
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