Finding No. 7333 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,797 Australians on Thursday September 14, 2017. They were asked “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”
A special snap SMS Morgan Poll taken last night before today’s North Korean ballistic missile test shows Australians are evenly split on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon with 51% saying it is either ‘Fairly unlikely’ (33%) or ‘Very unlikely’ (18%) cf. 49% that say it is ‘Fairly likely’ (33%) or ‘Very likely’ (16%).
As expected, a follow-up question shows a majority of Australians (81%) want the opposing sides in the North Korean stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution and only 19% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution isn’t working and a military one is needed.
This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted last night (Thursday) with a cross-section of 1,797 Australians before North Korea’s latest ballistic missile test this morning.
Analysis by Voting Preference
Analysing the results by voting preference shows supporters of the major parties are also split down the middle on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon and as expected large majorities of supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a Military solution:
- Liberal voters: Very/ Fairly likely (50%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (50%);
- National voters: Very/ Fairly likely (42%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (58%);
- ALP voters: Very/ Fairly likely (52%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (48%);
- Greens voters: Very/ Fairly likely (34%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (66%);
- One Nation voters: Very/ Fairly likely (50%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (50%);
- Ind. /Others voters: Very/ Fairly likely (52%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (48%).
North Korea – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution
- Liberal voters: Peaceful diplomatic solution (80%) cf. Military solution (20%);
- National voters: Peaceful diplomatic solution (76%) cf. Military solution (24%);
- ALP voters: Peaceful diplomatic solution (83%) cf. Military solution (17%);
- Greens voters: Peaceful diplomatic solution (93%) cf. Military solution (7%);
- One Nation voters: Peaceful diplomatic solution (64%) cf. Military solution (36%);
- Ind. /Others voters: Peaceful diplomatic solution (70%) cf. Military solution (30%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by gender shows women and men are largely in agreement on the tense situation although women are slightly more worried than men when considering the likelihood that North Korea might use nuclear weapons than not:
- Women: Very/ Fairly likely (51%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (49%);
- Men: Very/ Fairly likely (47%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (53%).
North Korea – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution
- Women: Peaceful diplomatic solution (82%) cf. Military solution (18%);
- Men: Peaceful diplomatic solution (79%) cf. Military solution (21%).
Analysis by Age
Analysing by age shows a split opinion on whether North Korea would use a nuclear weapon with a majority of those aged 18-24 and 35-49 believing North Korea would be Very likely or Fairly likely to use a nuclear weapon
- 18-24yr olds: Very/ Fairly likely (53%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (47%);
- 25-34yr olds: Very/ Fairly likely (46%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (54%);
- 35-49yr olds: Very/ Fairly likely (53%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (47%);
- 50-64yr olds: Very/ Fairly likely (45%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (55%);
- 65+yr olds: Very/ Fairly likely (48%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (52%).
North Korea – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution
A majority of all age groups are resolutely opposed to military action as a solution to the North Korean problem, however younger age groups (Under 50), are slightly more amenable to a military solution than those aged over 50:
- 18-24yr olds: Peaceful diplomatic solution (79%) cf. Military solution (21%);
- 25-34yr olds: Peaceful diplomatic solution (79%) cf. Military solution (21%);
- 35-49yr olds: Peaceful diplomatic solution (78%) cf. Military solution (22%);
- 50-64yr olds: Peaceful diplomatic solution (83%) cf. Military solution (17%);
- 65+yr olds: Peaceful diplomatic solution (82%) cf. Military solution (18%).
Analysis by State
Analysis by State shows Australians are fairly evenly split on whether North Korea would use a nuclear weapon in most States however Tasmanians are the least worried about the likelihood of North Korea using a nuclear weapon perhaps reflecting their greater distance from the Korean Peninsula and also the unlikeliness of Tasmania as a North Korean target:
- New South Wales: Very/ Fairly likely (52%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (48%);
- Victoria: Very/ Fairly likely (47%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (53%);
- Queensland: Very/ Fairly likely (50%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (50%);
- Western Australia: Very/ Fairly likely (51%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (49%);
- South Australia: Very/ Fairly likely (48%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (52%);
- Tasmania: Very/ Fairly likely (36%) cf. Very/Fairly unlikely (64%).
North Korea – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution
Analysing by State shows clear majorities in all Australian States against a military solution to the North Korean problem however the home of a significant portion of Australia’s military, Queensland, is the most sympathetic to a military solution:
- New South Wales: Peaceful diplomatic solution (82%) cf. Military solution (18%);
- Victoria: Peaceful diplomatic solution (82%) cf. Military solution (18%);
- Queensland: Peaceful diplomatic solution (74%) cf. Military solution (26%);
- Western Australia: Peaceful diplomatic solution (82%) cf. Military solution (18%);
- South Australia: Peaceful diplomatic solution (82%) cf. Military solution (18%);
- Tasmania: Peaceful diplomatic solution (78%) cf. Military solution (22%).
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“Australians are split down the middle on whether North Korea – a country that Australia is still technically at war with given there was no formal peace treaty to end the Korean War of 1950-53 – will use nuclear weapons with 51% saying it is either ‘Fairly or Very unlikely’ and almost as many, 49%, saying it is either ‘Fairly or Very likely’ the rogue regime will use nuclear weapons.
“However, despite the threat, a huge majority of Australians are as expected in favour of a peaceful solution to the stand-off that threatens the security of North-East Asia and the wider region with 81% of Australians wanting a diplomatic solution – including 80% of Liberal voters and 83% of ALP voters compared to only 20% of Australians that believe a peaceful diplomatic solution isn’t possible and a military one is needed.
“The consensus on these questions across political lines also extends across both genders, all age groups and around all of Australia’s States. However, this snap SMS Morgan Poll was taken before North Korea’s latest provocation this morning when the regime of Kim Jong-Un fired a ballistic missile nearly 4,000km eastward across the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. This is the second time North Korea has engaged in such a provocative action against its neighbour across the East Sea.”
Finding No. 7333 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,797 Australians on Thursday September 14, 2017. They were asked “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”
Roy Morgan SMS Polling was extremely accurate at both the last two Federal Elections.
Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au
Question 1:
“In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?”
Analysis by Voting Preference – North Korea using nuclear weapon
|
|
Total
|
Electors
|
Liberal
|
National
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Other
|
Can’t say
|
Non
Electors
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Very likely
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
9
|
20
|
7
|
16
|
25
|
11
|
|
Fairly likely
|
33
|
32
|
34
|
33
|
32
|
27
|
36
|
34
|
32
|
|
Total likely
|
49
|
49
|
50
|
42
|
52
|
34
|
52
|
59
|
43
|
|
Fairly unlikely
|
33
|
34
|
33
|
43
|
33
|
45
|
27
|
23
|
28
|
|
Very unlikely
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
15
|
15
|
21
|
21
|
18
|
29
|
|
Total unlikely
|
51
|
51
|
50
|
58
|
48
|
66
|
48
|
41
|
57
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Analysis by Age & Gender – North Korea using nuclear weapon
| |
Total
|
Gender
|
Age
|
|
Men
|
Women
|
18-24
|
25-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Very likely
|
16
|
18
|
15
|
17
|
15
|
19
|
15
|
14
|
|
Fairly likely
|
33
|
29
|
36
|
36
|
31
|
34
|
30
|
34
|
|
Total likely
|
49
|
47
|
51
|
53
|
46
|
53
|
45
|
48
|
|
Fairly unlikely
|
33
|
35
|
32
|
30
|
36
|
31
|
37
|
32
|
|
Very unlikely
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
16
|
48
|
20
|
|
Total unlikely
|
51
|
53
|
49
|
47
|
54
|
47
|
55
|
52
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Analysis by State – North Korea using nuclear weapon
|
|
|
State
|
Region
|
|
|
Total
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS
|
City
|
Country
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Very likely
|
16
|
15
|
18
|
18
|
14
|
19
|
15
|
15
|
20
|
|
Fairly likely
|
33
|
37
|
29
|
32
|
37
|
29
|
21
|
33
|
33
|
|
Total likely
|
49
|
52
|
47
|
50
|
51
|
48
|
36
|
48
|
53
|
|
Fairly unlikely
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
34
|
31
|
31
|
41
|
33
|
33
|
|
Very unlikely
|
18
|
15
|
20
|
16
|
18
|
21
|
23
|
19
|
14
|
|
Total unlikely
|
51
|
48
|
53
|
50
|
49
|
52
|
64
|
52
|
47
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Question 2:
Respondents were then asked: “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”
Analysis by Voting Preference – Peaceful solution or Military solution
|
|
Total
|
Electors
|
Liberal
|
National
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Other
|
Can’t say
|
Non
Electors
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Peaceful
|
81
|
80
|
80
|
76
|
83
|
93
|
70
|
83
|
83
|
|
Military
|
19
|
20
|
20
|
24
|
17
|
7
|
30
|
17
|
17
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Analysis by Age & Gender – Peaceful solution or Military solution
| |
Total
|
Gender
|
Age
|
|
Men
|
Women
|
18-24
|
25-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Peaceful
|
81
|
79
|
82
|
79
|
79
|
78
|
83
|
82
|
|
Military
|
19
|
21
|
18
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
17
|
18
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Analysis by State – Peaceful solution or Military solution
|
|
|
State
|
Region
|
|
|
Total
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS
|
City
|
Country
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Peaceful
|
81
|
82
|
82
|
74
|
82
|
82
|
78
|
82
|
77
|
|
Military
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
26
|
18
|
18
|
22
|
18
|
23
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
For further information:
|
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|