This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 887 electors during October 30 – November 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
In November support for the newly elected Labour/NZ First/Greens Government was 54.5% (up 6% since early October) ahead of National/Act NZ on 41% (down 5.5%) with minor parties outside Parliament attracting the remaining 4.5% of support.
- Support for Labour/NZ First is at 44.5% (up 7% since early October), a slight increase from their election result of 44.1% while coalition partners the Greens are on 10% (down 1%).
- Support for National is at 40.5% (down 5.5%) and down 3.95% from their election result of 44.5% while their right-wing colleagues Act NZ are stuck unchanged on 0.5%.
- Of the parties outside Parliament it was new party ‘The Opportunities Party’ (TOP) which attracted the most support at the election (2.4%) without winning a seat and support for TOP is now at 2% while support for the Maori Party is at 1.5%, up slightly from their election result (1.2%).
Government Confidence Rating surges in November after Jacinda Ardern confirmed as PM
Government Confidence increased substantially during November after New Zealand First chose to form Government with the Labour Party installing Jacinda Ardern as New Zealand’s new PM.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 15.5pts to 146.5pts in November (the highest for nearly eight years since January 2010 early in the reign of Prime Minister John Key) with 66.5% of NZ electors (up 8% from October) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 20% of NZ electors (down 7.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, says Jacinda Ardern has brought a new level of confidence to New Zealanders with the generational change she represents promising more engagement with solving pressing issues including Homelessness & Child poverty:
“Jacinda Ardern was finally declared the victor of New Zealand’s tight election in mid-October when NZ First Leader Winston Peters announced his party would form Government in support of Labour rather than the existing National-led coalition.
“Since Peters made the announcement, just over a month ago on October 19, Ardern has stepped into the role with consummate professionalism and already embarked on several key overseas trips to Australia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
“As is customary Ardern’s first overseas trip in early November was to Australia to meet Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull and from there it was onto the APEC Leader’s Meeting in Da Nang, Vietnam and from there to the East Asian Summit in the Philippines at which Ardern met world leaders including US President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“Ardern’s rise to the top job has seen an unprecedented spike in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – with 66.5% (up 8% since October) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ contributing to a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 146.5 – the highest in nearly 8 years.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 887 electors during October 30 – November 12, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts
These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.
View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.
Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.
For further information:
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Contact
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Office
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Mobile
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Gary Morgan:
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+61 3 9224 5213
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+61 411 129 094
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Michele Levine:
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+61 3 9224 5215
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+61 411 129 093
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
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Sample Size
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Percentage Estimate
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40%-60%
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25% or 75%
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10% or 90%
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5% or 95%
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1,000
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±3.2
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±2.7
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±1.9
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±1.4
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1,500
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±2.6
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±2.2
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±1.5
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±1.1
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2,000
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±2.2
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±1.9
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±1.3
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±1.0
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