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ANZ-Roy-Morgan Consumer Confidence drops after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 980 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend May 11/12, 2019.

Confidence fell by 2.1% last week, closing below its four-week moving average but remaining above the long-term average.  

  • Financial conditions were not the cause of the fall, with current finances up 2%, while future finances rose 1.4%.
  • Economic conditions dropped sharply, however, with current economic conditions down a massive 8.1%, continuing their recent volatile pattern, and future economic conditions falling 3.3%.
  • The ‘time to buy a household item’ also did not help, falling 2.5%. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations rose by 0.2ppt to 4.2%.  

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“The fall in consumer sentiment follows a couple of important developments. Domestically the RBA decided to leave interest rates unchanged after considerable speculation that a rate cut might occur. Globally, the US-China trade dispute resumed with the US increasing tariffs on a wide range of goods. At this stage, consumers see these events as more damaging for overall economic prospects than their own finances. After a period of weakness, inflation expectations jumped to 4.5% for the week, pushing the four week moving average to 4.2% – its highest level since the end of January. The uptrend in petrol prices over the last few weeks may have supported inflation expectations.”



Click here to download the latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence PDF.

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2