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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.9 pts to 92.1 after COVID-19 cases surge in Melbourne; forcing Melbourne back into lockdown for six weeks starting midnight tomorrow - Wednesday July 8

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,443 online and telephone interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend July 4/5, 2020.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 0.9pts to 92.1 this week – and is now at its lowest for nearly two months since May 9/10, 2020 (90.3). Consumer Confidence is now 25.5pts lower than a year ago on the comparable weekend of July 6/7, 2019 (117.6) and 2.9pts below the 2020 weekly average of 95.0.

Driving the fall this week were declines in confidence about the Australian economy into the future as well as a drop in those saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ household items.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 37% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • In addition 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 18% (down 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • However just 7% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while 46% (up 1ppt), expect ‘bad times’.

Future financial conditions

  • And in the longer term, 17% (down 2ppts) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to 19% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Meanwhile a decreasing number of Australians, 35% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.2%.

ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch, commented:

"Confidence fell a further 1% last week, taking it to an eight-week low. Although there was a marginal improvement in how people felt about their financial conditions, confidence in economic conditions continued to deteriorate. This was not surprising, with new COVID-19 case numbers continuing to escalate in Melbourne. While the return to lockdown has so far been localised to 12 postcodes, the confidence effect is more pervasive. The uncertainty also appears to be discouraging households from committing to large purchases, with ‘time to buy a major household item’ falling heavily for a second week."


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
ANZ-Roy Morgan 2020 Weekly Australian Consumer Confidence Results
ANZ-Roy Morgan Monthly Australian Consumer Confidence Results (1973-2020)
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Results (All 5 Questions)

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2