Roy Morgan September Inflation Expectations are based on personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of 6,092 Australians aged 14+.
*Socio-Economic Status Quintiles
Each respondent is given a score up to 60 according to their status in each of the following categories:
1. EDUCATION LEVEL OF RESPONDENT
There are twelve levels of education. A score of 5 is given to those who completed only some primary school, 10 to those who finished primary school, and so on up to 60 for those who have a degree or post-graduate degree.
2. INCOME OF RESPONDENT (if respondent is a full-time worker)
There are eighteen income levels. A similar scoring procedure is used giving 2 to those in the lowest income group, up to 60 to those in the highest income group.
3. OCCUPATION OF RESPONDENT (if respondent is a full-time worker)
There are twelve occupation levels. Again, each level is scored at approximately 5-point intervals. Professional people receive the highest score. Note - if the respondent is not a full-time worker, then the status of the main income earner is considered.
The respondent’s scores for each of the three categories are then tallied to give a score out of 180.
We then look at the frequency distribution of the scores and divide the population into five even groups of 20%, ie. quintiles.
The AB quintile is the highest level - people in this quintile have the highest scores.
Approximate breakdowns are:
Score
154+ - 5th or AB quintile
126 – 153 - 4th or C quintile
104 – 125 - 3rd or D quintile
81 – 103 - 2nd or E quintile
11 – 80 - 1st or FG quintile
Note - if the respondent is not a full-time worker, then the status of the main income earner is considered.
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
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Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2020)
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Year
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Jan
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Feb
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Mar
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Apr
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May
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Jun
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Jul
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Aug
|
Sep
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Oct
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Nov
|
Dec
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Yearly
Average
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2010
|
n/a
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n/a
|
n/a
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5.9
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5.8
|
5.5
|
5.6
|
5.4
|
5.5
|
5.8
|
5.6
|
5.8
|
5.7
|
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2011
|
6.6
|
6.4
|
6.4
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6.2
|
6.1
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6.2
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6.1
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5.8
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5.7
|
5.8
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5.5
|
5.5
|
6.0
|
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2012
|
5.4
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5.5
|
5.9
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5.9
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6.0
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6.2
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5.9
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5.9
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5.8
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5.7
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5.6
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5.4
|
5.8
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2013
|
5.2
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5.1
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5.3
|
4.9
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5.2
|
4.9
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5.3
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5.0
|
4.8
|
4.9
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4.8
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5.0
|
5.0
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2014
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5.1
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5.2
|
5.2
|
5.1
|
5.1
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5.3
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5.0
|
4.8
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5.0
|
4.8
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4.9
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4.4
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5.0
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2015
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.5
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4.2
|
4.4
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4.4
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4.5
|
4.5
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4.2
|
4.4
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4.5
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4.5
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2016
|
4.3
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4.2
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4.2
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4.2
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4.0
|
4.0
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4.1
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3.9
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4.1
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4.1
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3.9
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4.2
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4.1
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2017
|
4.5
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4.4
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4.4
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4.4
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4.3
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4.2
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4.3
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4.5
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4.4
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4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
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4.4
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2018
|
4.5
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4.4
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4.3
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4.5
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4.3
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4.5
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4.3
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4.3
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4.3
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4.5
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4.3
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4.2
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4.4
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2019
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4.2
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4.0
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4.0
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3.7
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4.1
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3.8
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4.1
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3.9
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4.0
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4.1
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3.9
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4.0
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4.0
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2020
|
3.9
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4.0
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4.0
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3.6
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3.3
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3.2
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3.4
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3.2
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3.3
|
|
|
|
3.5
|
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Monthly
Average
|
4.8
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4.8
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4.8
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4.8
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4.8
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4.7
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4.8
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4.7
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4.7
|
4.8
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4.7
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4.8
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4.8
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Overall Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8
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RBA interest rates changes during the time period measured: 2010-2020.
RBA – Interest rate increasing cycle (2010):
2010
April 2010: +0.25% to 4.25%; May 2010: +0.25% to 4.75%, November 2010: +0.25% to 5%.
RBA – Interest rate cutting cycle (2011-2013, 2015-2016 & 2019-2020):
2011
November 2011: -0.25% to 4.5%; December 2011: -0.25% to 4.25%.
2012
May 2012: -0.5% to 3.75%; June 2012: -0.25% to 3.5%; October 2012: -0.25% to 3.25%;
December 2012: -0.25% to 3%.
2013
May 2013: -0.25% to 2.75%; August 2013: -0.25% to 2.5%.
2014
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2014.
2015
February 2015: -0.25% to 2.25%; May 2015: -0.25% to 2%.
2016
May 2016: -0.25% to 1.75%; August 2016: -0.25% to 1.5%.
2017
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2017.
2018
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2018.
2019
June 2019: -0.25% to 1.25%; July 2019: -0.25% to 1%; October 2019: -0.25% to 0.75%.
2020
March 4, 2020: -0.25% to 0.5% & March 20, 2020: -0.25% to 0.25%.
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