ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.1 in June

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 114.1 in June, a little under its historical average of 120.

• The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, rose 3 points to +22.
• Inflation expectations cracked an unheard-of 5%, while house price inflation expectations were little changed at 5.8%.

Turning to the detail:

• Perceptions of current financial situations jumped 7 points to +14%, by far its strongest post-COVID level.

• A net 22% expect to be better off this time next year, down 5.

• A net 22% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, up 3 points to a post-COVID high. This is the single best retail indicator in the survey.

• Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook rose 4 points to +3%. The five-year outlook fell 8 points to +10%.

• House price inflation expectations were little changed at 5.8%. They lifted in Auckland (from 5.7% to 6.2%) but eased elsewhere.

• CPI inflation expectations jumped 0.7%pts to 5.1%, a record high in data that starts in 2010.

Households’ confidence about buying major items is rising – not that previously self-reported wariness has been much of a constraint in practice, retail sales data shows. This likely reflects a substitution towards nice things in place of overseas holidays, plus the housing boom. Younger people have generally taken longer to be convinced that now is a good time to spend, but everyone’s broadly now on the same page.