ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September - lowest for a year

New Zealand Consumer confidence was down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September, led by a decline in the 'current conditions' index.

• The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 20 points to -7.
• Inflation expectations were steady at 5.1%. House price inflation expectations eased very slightly to 6.1%.

Turning to the detail:

• Perceptions of current financial situations fell 5 points to +7%.

• A net 24% expect to be better off this time next year, up 2.

• A net 7% think it is a bad time to buy a major household item, down 20 points. This is the best retail indicator in the survey, but it makes sense that some of this hit will be lockdown-related and temporary.

• Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 8 points to -13%. The five-year outlook rose 5 points to +12%.

• House price inflation expectations eased 0.2%pts to 6.1%. They rose in Auckland, Wellington and the South Island ex-Canterbury, and eased elsewhere.

• CPI inflation expectations were steady at 5.1%, remaining extremely high versus a more typical historical reading of around 3½%.

Households’ response to whether it was a good time to buy a major household item dropped sharply in September. Some of this may reflect temporary lockdown impacts, rather than a rethink of spend or save decisions, but many regions that are back in Level 2 dropped sharply as well.