ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 1.4pts to 96.6 in November - lowest for over a year

New Zealand Consumer confidence was down by 1.4pts to 96.6 in November, perceptions of current conditions rose but expectations fell sharply.

• The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item lifted 1 point and remains subdued at -6.
• Inflation expectations eased half a percent to 5.7%. House price inflation expectations fell back under 6%.

Turning to the detail:

• Perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 7 points to 4%.

• A net 15% expect to be better off this time next year, down another 5.

• A net 6% think it is a bad time to buy a major household item, still very subdued. This is the best retail indicator in the survey.

• Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell another 3 points to -28%. The five-year outlook fell 4 points to -2%. This is the first time that’s ever been negative, in data that goes back to 2004.

• House price inflation expectations fell 0.8%pts to 5.9%. They fell most in Wellington (5.0% vs. 8.3% last month).

• CPI inflation expectations eased from 6.2% to 5.7%, still the second-highest read on record. Households have been more clued up than anyone when it comes to inflation in the past 18 months.

Households’ response to whether it was a good time to buy a major household remains subdued everywhere outside the South Island outside of Canterbury. Auckland and Wellington are the most pessimistic. Those 50+ are the most comfortable spending, which isn’t unusual.