Back To Listing

The ALP continues to hold a commanding lead over the L-NP as the Russia-Ukraine war continues and petrol prices spike: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
A special Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last week shows there is little change to the Federal voting intention in Australia with the ALP 56% (down 0.5% points from a week ago) still well ahead of the L-NP 44% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. 

The latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted as the Russian war on Ukraine enters its third week and the increase in energy prices caused by the war has now led to significant increases in petrol prices around Australia to record highs above $2 per litre. 

Analysis by State shows small movements with support for the L-NP up slightly in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania while support for the ALP increased in NSW, Western Australia and South Australia. 

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,947 Australian electors aged 18+ from Thursday March 3 - Sunday March 13, 2022. There were 5.5% of electors (down 1% point) who wouldn’t say who they support. 

ALP leads L-NP by 3.5% points on primary vote as petrol prices spikes above $2 per litre  

Primary support for the ALP was down 0.5% points to 37% in mid-March as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and energy prices increased worldwide. The ALP is now 3.5% points ahead of the L-NP, down 0.5% points to 33.5%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 11.5%. However, the primary support for the Greens always ends up lower at the Federal Election as the party does not have people handing out ‘how-to-vote’ cards at all the booths – particularly in rural and regional areas of Australia.

Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points at 3%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 3.5% while support for Independents increased 1.5% points to 10.5%. 

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in five States, behind only in Queensland 

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States, with the LNP enjoying a slight advantage in Queensland – easily their strongest state from the last Election. 

The ALP’s lead in NSW has increased slightly since early March with the ALP now on 56.5% (up 0.5% points since early March) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (down 0.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. 

The ALP’s lead in Victoria has been cut with the ALP now on 60% (down 3.5% points since early March) compared to the L-NP on 40% (up 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The LNP has increased its advantage in Queensland with the LNP on 52% (up 0.5% points since early March) level with the ALP on 48% (down 0.5% points). Despite the LNP’s lead this result represents a swing of 6.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. 

The ALP’s lead in Western Australia has increased slightly since early March with the ALP on 53% (up 1% point since early March) cf. L-NP 47% (down 1% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 8.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. 

In South Australia the ALP leads on 54.5% (up 2% points since early March) cf. the L-NP on 45.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 66.5% cf. L-NP 33.5%, representing a large swing of 10.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. 

Roy Morgan Government Confidence was unchanged at 88 in mid-March 

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 88 in early March. Now 37% (up 1% point) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 49% (up 1% point) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. 

Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of nearly 30pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in Queensland on 94, South Australia on 93, New South Wales on 91.5 and Western Australia on 90.5.

In the other two States Government Confidence is below average at 80.5 in Victoria and well below average in Tasmania at only 66.5. Only 26.5% of Tasmanians currently think the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 60% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. 

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says: 

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 56% (down 0.5% points since early March) continuing to hold a clear lead over the L-NP 44% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. 

“The ALP’s lead has held up during the last few months despite the geo-political tensions surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which would usually lead to an increase in support for the incumbent Government. As it is the ALP’s lead is unchanged since mid-January. 

“Although the Russian invasion of Ukraine is yet to cause any changes to the political situation in Australia the knock-on effects of the invasion are starting to impact the economy. The sanctions levied on Russia by many countries, including Australia, have caused significant increases in the prices of several key energy commodities including oil, gas and coal. 

“In Australia the rising price of oil has led to the price of petrol at the pump rising above $2 per litre for the first time in history. The rising petrol price has led to calls for the Federal Government to cut the fuel excise which is currently levied at 44.2 cents per litre – including by the Liberal Premiers of NSW, South Australia and Tasmania. 

“Across the ‘ditch’ in New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has just cut fuel taxes by 25c per litre for the next three months. Prime Minister Scott Morrison hasn’t yet ruled out a cut to the fuel excise being included in this month’s Federal Budget due at the end of the month. 

“One of the biggest problems that Australia faces is that many key policymakers continue to ignore the large number of Australians who are unemployed or under-employed. The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates for February 2022 shows 2.36 million Australians (16.3% of the workforce) are either unemployed or under-employed.

“This large cohort of over 2.3 million Australians looking for work, or looking for more work, explains why wage growth in Australia remains subdued despite the inflationary pressures that are continuing to build. The Roy Morgan estimate is also significantly larger (+800,000) than the latest ABS estimate of 1.51 million Australians either unemployed or under-employed (10.9% of the workforce) upon which many policies are erroneously based.” 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–March 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com