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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1pt to 83.7 as RBA set to raise interest rates for third month in a row
July 05 2022
- Finding No.
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,506 online and telephone interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 during the week of June 27 – July 3, 2022.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1pt to 83.7 this week and is now a large 24.1pts below the same week a year ago, July 3/4, 2021 (107.8). Consumer Confidence is now 10.1pts below the 2022 weekly average of 93.8.
The RBA is this week expected to increase official interest rates by another 0.50% to 1.35%. If the RBA does increase official interest rates as expected this will be the third monthly increase in a row. This will be the first time this has happened for over a decade since May 2010 while the magnitude of the three increases taken together (+1.25% over three months) will be the largest three-month increase in official interest rates for nearly three decades since December 1994 (+2% over three months).
On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia. Driving the small deterioration in the index was more people saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items after the finish of the annual ‘End of Financial Year’ (EOFY) sales.
Current financial conditions
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, fewer than a third of Australians, 30% (down 1ppt) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 31% (down 1ppt), that expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- However, only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 38% (down 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, only 13% (down 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now just 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 47% (up 4ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Consumer confidence decreased 1.2% last week, driven by a 4ppt increase in the number of respondents who think it is a ‘bad time to buy’ a major household item. A possible reason for this could be the conclusion of End of Financial Year sales. Expectations of a further increase in the interest rate by the RBA at its meeting today could be another reason behind the dampened sentiment. Household inflation expectations rose 0.2ppt to 5.9% last week, exactly reversing its fall the week before."
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
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