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ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence Dipped in April
April 22 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence has fallen slightly from a record high to 141.5 (down 0.8pts) in March, driven largely by a decrease in respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items. Regardless of the dip, Vietnamese Consumer Confidence remains well above its long-term average of 134.5.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence has fallen for the second straight month to 140.2 (down 1.3pts) in April with the fall driven by small falls in four components of the survey. However, despite the fall, Vietnamese Consumer Confidence remains well above its 2014 average of 133.3.
Glenn Maguire, ANZ Chief Economist, South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific said:
- In terms of personal finances now, 35% (down 1ppt) of Vietnamese said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 19% (unchanged) who said their families are ‘worse off’ financially (staying at the lowest for this indicator for more than a year, since March 2014).
- Of the respondents, 57% (down 1ppt) of Vietnamese expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to just 5% (up 1ppt) who expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- In addition, 55% (unchanged) of Vietnamese said Vietnam will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and only 11% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Longer-term, 63% (up 2ppts) of Vietnamese expect Vietnam to have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years compared to just 5% (up 1ppt) who expect ‘bad times’ economically.
- Finally, 47% (up 1ppt) of Vietnamese said now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 15% (up 3ppts) who said now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items (the highest for this indicator since September 2014).
“Though headline consumer confidence continued to pull-back slightly in April, the details of the survey are consistent with an economy where the domestic components of growth are finally gaining surer recovery traction.
"Our broad macro assessment is that the Vietnamese economy has now bottomed and we foresee an ongoing recovery for 2015 and 2016. Indeed, we recently revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2015 and 2015 to 6.5%y/y.
"The transmission mechanism of a firming economic recovery to consumer confidence should be relatively straightforward. In the first quarter, industry growth posted its fastest pace of growth in the past three years in line with stronger growth in industrial production. As this translates to firmer output and most probably employment we would expect to see both confidence and aggregate income formation improving over coming quarters. The ongoing firming recovery should create an environment where households become more confident to spend, further strengthening the recovery in domestic demand.
"The obvious caveat is that for an emerging economy, this transmission mechanism may play out with uncertain lags or be only partially transmitted given high savings rates. Still, the Vietnamese economy appears to be entering a sweeter spot and both consumer confidence and spending will play a key role in ensuring that is where the economy is likely to stay in the medium term.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnamese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - April 2015.
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