The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Singapore. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of August 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence index rose to 130.5 in August – the highest in more than a year (since July 2014’s 135.9). August’s gain was primarily driven by an increase in the number of local respondents who felt that ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items, keeping the index elevated above its long-term average of 123.1pts.
Compared to the previous month, the index rose 4.1pts. Compared to the same period last year, the index is 11.5pts higher than August 2014’s 119.0.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- In terms of personal finances, 31% (up 4ppts from July) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago. On the contrary, 9% (up 1ppt from July) of respondents said they are ‘worse off’ financially.
- 37% (up 4ppts from July) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time. This is the highest value recorded for the indicator since July 2014. On the other hand, 6% (unchanged) of respondents expect to be ‘worse off’ financially in a year’s time.
- When thinking of economic conditions in Singapore going forward, half of the respondents, or 50% (down 1ppt from July), expect Singapore to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months but 10% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Over the longer term, 52% (up 1ppt from July) of respondents expect Singapore to have ‘good times’ financially during the next five years while 7% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- 26% (up 6ppts from July) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items, marking the highest level for the indicator since July 2014. Meanwhile, a historically low 12% (down 7ppts from July) of respondents felt now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
“As Singaporeans reflected on 50 remarkable years and all that was achieved – and received a rather generous Jubilee weekend holiday (7 -10 August) – it is not surprising that headline consumer confidence rose strongly over the month.
"What is perhaps surprising is that the breakdown of consumer confidence did not fit with a pattern associated with patriotism. Typically, rising national pride and a sense of achievement will manifest themselves in improved assessments of the one-year and five-year ahead outlook questions. However, this wasn’t the case in August as responses to both questions were broadly unchanged.
"Therefore, the bounce in sentiment was clearly driven by short-term financial developments: More Singaporeans consider themselves to be better off than a year ago and one year from now. In addition, car prices will likely be dampened due to an expected increase in the supply of COEs; this dynamic could provide a fillip to consumer sentiment.
"However, looking ahead, we expect some normalisation in the upswing in consumer confidence, especially as households could be spooked by the global equity rout and the sharp moderation of China’s economic growth. Persistent softness in property prices is also likely to have a knock-on ‘wealth effect’.
"All in all, after a strong patriotic bounce in August, sentiment may be more mixed in the coming months.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Singaporean Consumer Confidence Release - August 2015.
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