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ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence Eased Slightly
September 23 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Singapore. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of September 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence retreated by 0.9pts to 129.6 in September, primarily due to increased concerns about Singapore’s economy over the next five years. However, the index is still 8.9pts higher than a year ago (Sept’14: 120.7) and remains clearly above its long-term average of 123.5.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- In terms of personal finances, 34% (up 3ppts from August) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, the highest value ever recorded for the indicator. In contrast, 10% (up 1ppt) said they are ‘worse off’ financially.
- 38% (up 1ppt from August) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time, the highest figure recorded since July 2014. On the other hand, 6% (unchanged) expect their families to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- When thinking of economic conditions in Singapore going forward, more than half of the respondents, or 56% (up 6ppts from August), expect Singapore to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months, the highest figure recorded for the indicator since July 2014. However, 13% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Over the longer term, 52% (unchanged from August) of respondents expect Singapore to have ‘good times’ financially over the next five years but 12% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially, the highest figure recorded for the indicator since March 2014.
- 24% (down 2ppts from August) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items while 15% (up 3ppts) said ‘now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
“Periods of economic uncertainty generally favour political incumbency. Both the headline decline in the Singapore consumer confidence index and the strong swing towards the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) in the September election confirm that this dynamic is at work in Singapore.
"Economic uncertainty clearly increased over August and September with the trade and activity data weakening, broadly in line with the ongoing slowdown in the Chinese and regional economies. In terms of our index, an increasing number of respondents have indicated concern on Singapore’s economy in both the medium and long term. The number of respondents who expect Singapore to experience bad times financially over the next year and the longer term both rose in September. The uncertainty likely resulted in a ‘flight to safety’ mindset within the electorate that galvanised sentiment back towards the time-tested PAP as most apt to tackle the immediate and medium term challenges on the horizon.
"Looking ahead, we expect continued normalisation in the recent upswing in consumer confidence, especially as households could be spooked by the global equity rout and the sharp moderation of China’s economic growth. Already, recent trade performance has underscored the vulnerability of Singapore to sluggish global trade. Domestically, a rise in rates will exacerbate the persistent softness in property prices which will have a knock-on ‘wealth effect’ on households.
"All of this suggests confidence is more likely to soften, then strengthen, in the coming months.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Singaporean Consumer Confidence Release PDF - September 2015.
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