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ANZ-Roy Morgan Singaporean Consumer Confidence Continues to Retreat
October 28 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Singapore. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of October 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 125.0 (down 4.6pts m/m) in October. The index remains above its long-term average of 123.5 and is 4.8pts higher than it was a year ago (Oct’14: 120.2). Overall, respondents said they are less optimistic about personal financial conditions and have scaled back plans to buy big-ticket household items.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- In terms of personal finances, 27% (down 7ppts m/m) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago. This is the lowest for the indicator since October 2014. Meanwhile, 9% (down 1ppt) said they are ‘worse off’.
- The number of respondents who expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time fell to 33% (down 5ppts), the lowest since February 2015. On the other hand, 7% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’, the highest recorded since February 2015.
- When thinking of future economic conditions in Singapore, 51% (down 5ppts), expect the country to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months while 11% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.
- Over the longer term, 49% (down 3ppts) of the respondents expect Singapore to have ‘good times’ financially in the next five years but 10% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.
- The number of respondents who felt ‘now is a good time’ to buy major household items dipped to 20% (down 4ppts) while 18% (up 3ppts) felt it is a ‘bad time’ to do so.
“The sharp fall in consumer confidence over the month of October was largely driven by a gloomier assessment of current and expected personal financial conditions. However, it is important to note that this growing pessimism extends to the responses to all five survey questions. The Singapore consumer is evidently not immune to the near-recessionary conditions in the local economy, which narrowly averted a technical recession in Q3, and in response to which the MAS had delivered a token easing on 14 October.
"The growth outlook has also dimmed with the persistence of cyclical headwinds likely to weigh on Singapore’s external-oriented sectors. Domestic conditions are not providing a significant offset at this stage; in fact, higher rates might weigh on mortgage repayments.
"The confluence of external and domestic headwinds suggests that local consumer confidence is more likely to soften, then strengthen, in the coming months. A similar dynamic should thus be expected for domestic demand. As a result, Singapore is likely to remain perilously close to a technical recession in the subsequent months.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Singaporean Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2015.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.