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ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence ticks up marginally

The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,700 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 22 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of November 2015.
HIGHLIGHTS

Despite November’s slight uptick to 144.2 (up 1pt m/m) in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Index, the indicator is still 17.2pts lower than it was a year ago (Nov 14: 161.4) and also well below the 2015 average of 149.4. The silver lining is that the overall index remains above its long-run average (2005-2015) of 131.4.


  • In terms of personal finances, 37% (unchanged) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, the lowest since April 2012. At the same time, only 13% (down 2ppts) said their families are ‘worse off’.

  • 68% (up 1ppt) of the respondents expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 5% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’, the highest since February 2012.

  • On the overall state of the economy, sentiment was relatively more upbeat. 78% (up 1ppt) of the respondents expect Indonesia to have ‘good times’ during the next 12 months while 22% (down 1ppt) believe there will be ‘bad times’.

  • Additionally, over the longer term, 89% (up 1ppt) of the respondents expect the domestic economy to have ‘good times’ in the next five years; only 11% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’.

  • Purchase intentions of major household appliances were divided. 48% (down 2ppts) of the respondents said ‘now is a good time’ to buy big-ticket items, the lowest since March 2011. However, an equal proportion of 48% (unchanged) feel ‘now is a bad time’ to do so, the highest since March 2011.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:

“Last month, we noted that Indonesian consumer confidence appeared to be stabilising. The essential sideways movement in the index over the month of November, albeit with a slight uptick, reinforces this.

"The stabilising influence in consumer confidence seems to stem from expectations of future income growth. Although only 37% of Indonesians believe they are better off compared to last year, 68% expect to be better off a year from now. In addition, a very high proportion (78%) of respondents believe that prospects for the Indonesian economy will be positive over the next 12 months and a higher 89% expressed confidence about the next five years.

"Still, uncertainty is weighing on individuals’ assessment of whether now is a good time to purchase a major household item. This is reflected in the results of discretionary spending intentions, with 48% of Indonesians willing to do so while an almost equal proportion of people are holding back. This continues to present downside risks to consumption in the near term – and therefore the overall growth recovery – even as confidence continues to stabilise.

"We believe Indonesia is struggling to find a growth trough at this time. The sideways movement in the index lends support to the view that a base is in the process of forming, but the lack of a strong recovery in sentiment suggests that the base will be fragile.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating - November 2015 - 144.2

ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating - November 2015 - 144.2

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - November 2015.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0