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ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence fell in December to 113.6
December 23 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence Index was based on 1,025 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout India. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of December 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan India Consumer Confidence fell to 113.6 (down 8.4pts) in December – finishing the year below its long-term average of 116.9 – 6.7pts lower than a year ago in December 2014 (120.3). Driving this month’s large fall in Indian consumer confidence was a large decrease in confidence about how Indians consider their financial situations compared to this time a year ago and a large decrease in those saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.
ANZ Chief Economist, South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- In terms of personal finances, 14% (down 5ppts) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago compared to 42% (up a very large 12ppts) who said their families are ‘worse off’ financially than a year ago (a new record high figure for this indicator).
- Now 37% (up 1ppt) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time, compared to 15% (unchanged) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- Thinking of economic conditions in India going forward, 55% (down 4ppts) of respondents expect India to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months compared to 19% (up 5ppts) that expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Over the longer-term, more than half of all respondents (now 58%; unchanged), expect India to have ‘good times’ during the next five years, while 12% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- Now 14% (down a large 8ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (a new record low figure for this indicator), compared to 22% (up 5ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence has finished the year on a sombre tone, in clear contrast to the Indian economic outlook – that is to say, one of the most promising individual economic outlooks both in the region and globally.
"Clearly, when the economic and consumer outlook diverge, specific causal factors are likely to be at play. The severe rainfall and flooding most probably dampened sentiment through disruptions to work and services delivery, and for agricultural provinces due to food wastage.
"The political overlay is also never far from influencing the consumer outlook in India. The ramifications of Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defeat in the Bihar election are probably starting to make themselves more apparent in the consumer mindset. This was the second straight regional election setback to the Modi BJP party, and may begin to impact on the consumer’s mindset regarding the pace of reform.
"Still, there is no denying that India has one of the region’s most promising economic outlooks, and 2016 looks set to be a positive year for India.”
Click to view the latest, and the final, ANZ-Roy Morgan Indian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - December 2015.
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