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Audi drivers are the most likely to be in the market for a new car

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, March 2015– February 2016, sample n = 50,311 Australians 14+.

28% of Audi drivers intend to buy a new car in the next four years – a rate more than double the norm of 13% of all current drivers, the latest automotive research for the 12 months to February 2016 from Roy Morgan shows.

Other makes with well above-average new car intention among current drivers include Volkswagen (23%), Skoda (21%), Jeep (20%), Mercedes Benz (19%), and Land Rover (19%).

17% of BMW, Volvo, or Renault drivers are in the market, as are 16% of Ssangyong or Mazda drivers. Drivers of a Honda, Kia, Holden Special Vehicle (HSV), Lexus, Peugeot, Isuzu Ute, Saab or Subaru are slightly more likely than average to be off to the showrooms within the next four years (14-15%), while drivers of a Hyundai or Suzuki are spot-on average. 

% of Makes’ Current Drivers who intend to buy a new car in next four years 

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, March 2015– February 2016, sample n = 50,311 Australians 14+. Makes with a sample n <50 current drivers have been excluded.

Jordan Pakes, Automotive Industry Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“2015 was a record sales year in the Automotive Industry, with brands and dealer groups spending around $1 billion on advertising in an effort to persuade potential buyers to visit their showrooms and purchase a vehicle from their range. When it comes to looking for new prospects in 2016 and beyond, some brands are better position than others to start by looking at their existing owner base.

“Audi has the highest proportion of current drivers in the market for a new car, with more than 1 in 4 Audi drivers looking to buy a new vehicle before 2020. VGA stablemates Volkswagen and Skoda also have high proportions of potential buyers, on 23% and 21% respectively – equating to around 120,000 people behind the wheel of a VW or Skoda looking to purchase over the next four years.

 “When it comes to future purchase intentions, automotive brands need to know just how many of their existing drivers intend to buy the same make again. With a substantial portion of each make’s future sales potentially coming from current drivers, trending loyalty (and understanding loyalists, switchers, and opportunities for conquest from other brands) is vital.

“Additionally, analysing existing customer databases with a tool such as Helix Personas can help brands understand which owners are most likely to be potential prospects. Compared to the national average, Smart Money (102) are 82% more likely to be in the market for a new car in the next four years, so understanding how many of them are existing customers and how long ago they purchased their current car would be an excellent starting point when prospecting for new customers.

“Next week, we’ll look at the makes these new car buyers plan to purchase next, to see which makes’ drivers are most likely to be intending to buy the same brand again.”  

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate


25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%