Election now too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. Minor Parties ‘won’ last night’s Leaders' debate.

If a Federal Election were held now the Election would be too close to call.

Primary support for the L-NP is 37.5% (up 1%) with ALP at 32.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens is down 2.5% to 13%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 11% (up 1.5%).

South Australia Voting Intention – NXT now outpolling the ALP

In South Australia the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) means several seats are likely to be three-way contests between the Liberals (31%), NXT (26.5%) and the ALP (25%) with support for the Greens (8.5%) and Independent/ Others (9%). In South Australia a total of 44% (up 2.5%) of electors now support a minor party rather than the Liberals or ALP.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 2.5pts this week to 102 with 40.5% (down 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38.5% (up 0.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, May 21/22 & 28/29, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,099 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows women heavily favouring the ALP and men slightly in favour of the L-NP.  Men: L-NP 51.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 0.5%); Women: ALP 53.5% (down 3%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (up 3%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%), and 25-34yr olds (ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%). However the L-NP narrowly leads the 35-49yr olds (L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%) and 50-64yr olds (L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%) and the L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in two Australian States. The L-NP leads in New South Wales: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5% and Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48%. The ALP leads in Tasmania: ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%, Victoria: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, South Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% and narrowly leads in Western Australia: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The Federal Election is too close to call with just over a month to go: ALP 51% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 49% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first three weeks of the campaign.

“Support for the minor parties is at a massive 30% (up 8.9% from the 2013 Federal Election) at the expense of both major parties, but primarily the L-NP 37.5% (down 8% from the 2013 Federal Election) and the ALP 32.5% (down 0.9%). However, the Greens support is down 2.5% to 13% this week after revelations Greens Leader Richard Di Natale failed to declare he owned a ‘farm’ on his Parliamentary interests register and that his family paid au pairs just $150 per week.

 “The support for minor parties will only rise after last night’s uninspiring Leader’s debate. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull didn’t explain how the unemployed and under-employed (18.1%, 2.322 million) will get jobs and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten gave no indication on how a Labor Government would create more private sector jobs by massive increases in public sector spending.

“The failure of both leaders means the winner of last night’s Leaders’ debate were Australia’s minor parties!

“If a Federal Election were held today the Senate would be controlled by a coalition of minor parties led by 3 or 4 Senators from the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) along with former Palmer United Party Senators Jacqui Lambie (Tasmania) and Glenn Lazarus (Queensland), Family First Senator Bob Day (SA) and Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm (NSW).

“In addition to holding the balance of power in the Senate, the high primary vote for the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) in South Australia (26.5%) shows NXT has a good chance of winning lower house seats from either the Liberals (Boothby, Mayo, Sturt) or the ALP (Kingston, Wakefield) and with the Greens led by MP Adam Bandt potentially having the ‘balance of power’ in the House of Representatives.

“Turnbull and Shorten still have time to present believable policies which:

 1) Tackle Australia’s booming ‘cash economy’; and

2) Reduce Australia’s real unemployment and under-employment.

"With 'honest' Government, nothing else matters!”