Turnbull leads Shorten as ‘Better PM’ but poor approval ratings for both leaders

Now 47% of Australian electors prefer Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as ‘Better Prime Minister’ ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 32%. This is a small decrease for Turnbull (down 4% from July 5, 2016 – just after the Federal Election when it was still unclear who had won), but a big decrease for Shorten (down 15%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted on October 24-26, 2016.

Preferred Prime Minister

Analysis by Gender – Turnbull holds similar lead amongst both men and women

Men: Turnbull 47% (down 5%) cf. Shorten 33% (down 12%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 14% (up 7%);

Women: Turnbull 47% (down 2%) cf. Shorten 31% (down 19%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 16% (up 17 %).

Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP electors and Shorten well ahead with ALP electors

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 86% (unchanged) cf. Shorten 4% (down 8%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 82% (up 8%);

ALP supporters: Turnbull 14% (down 4%) cf. Shorten 65% (down 16%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 51% (down 12%);

Greens supporters: Turnbull 22% (up 7%) cf. Shorten 54% (down 29%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 32% (down 36%);

Ind/Others supporters: Turnbull 51% (up 3%) cf. Shorten 25% (down 25%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 26% (up 28%).

Analysis by State – Turnbull leads clearly across all States

NSW: Turnbull 44% (down 14%) cf. Shorten 36% (up 12%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 8% (down 26%);

Victoria: Turnbull 43% (down 6%) cf. Shorten 32% (unchanged). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 11% (down 6%);

Queensland: Turnbull 51% (down 9%) cf. Shorten 22% (up 1%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 29% (down 10%);

*WA: Turnbull 50% (down 16%) cf. Shorten 30% (up 17%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 20% (down 33%);

*SA: Turnbull 51% (down 4%) cf. Shorten 37% (up 15%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 14% (down 19%);

*Tasmania: Turnbull 53% (down 6%) cf. Shorten 33% (down 2%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 20% (down 4%);

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Less than a third of Australian electors, 31% (down a large 12%) approve of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of his job as Prime Minister while 53% (up 12%) disapprove and 16% (unchanged) can’t say.

A clear majority of men, 58% (up 15%), now disapprove of Turnbull’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to only a third of men 33% (down 11%) who approve. In slight contrast, just under a half, 48% (up 9%), of women disapprove of Turnbull’s handling of the job compared to only 28% (down 15%) who approve.

Australian electors have a similarly poor view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader. Just short of a majority of 49% (unchanged) disapprove, while only 31% (down 3%) approve and a large number of electors, 20% (up 3%), can’t say.

Neither gender is impressed with Shorten’s handling of the job with just under a half of all men 49% (down 3%) disapproving of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job while 35% (down 1%) approve. Among women 48% (up 2%) disapprove cf. 31% (down 1%) approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll reveals bad news for both political leaders in Australia. While Malcolm Turnbull is clearly preferred over Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (47% cf. 32%), both leaders have lost support. Malcolm Turnbull is down 4% and Bill Shorten is down 15%.

“Moreover, both leaders have more detractors than approvers among the Australian electorate – a clear majority 53% (up 12%) of electors disapprove of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of his job compared to only 31% (down 12%) who approve while nearly half of Australian electors, 49% (unchanged) disapprove of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of his job. In short – Australians aren’t impressed with either Turnbull or Shorten.

“Poll watchers will remember the special snap SMS Morgan Poll taken only days after the Federal Election showed Shorten with a huge increase in support following a much better than expected performance by the ALP. Shorten’s behaviour in the immediate aftermath of the election was likened by many to a ‘victory lap’ - although Shorten was forced to concede the ALP had lost the Federal Election more than a week after Australians voted.

“Although Shorten’s performance in the days after the election drew a large degree of mirth from many keen to point out that despite appearances Shorten had in fact lost the Federal Election – it did serve an important purpose for Shorten. The premature ‘victory lap’ did prevent the mandatory leadership challenge against a party leader who loses an election. Fellow ALP leadership aspirants Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese were both pressured to announce their support for Shorten rather than challenge the incumbent as they had a right to.

“This last point is important – another special Morgan Poll released today shows that Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek (25%) and Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese (24%) are both clearly preferred by Australian electors to lead the ALP over the incumbent Shorten (14%).

“The results for preferred Coalition Leader are also discouraging for Prime Minister Turnbull. Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (34%) has overtaken Turnbull (25%) as Australian electors’ choice to lead the Coalition and both are well ahead of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott (14%) – click here for more details of preferred ALP & Coalition leaders.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights last week, October 24-26, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross section of 552 electors. *Sample sizes of under 50 electors in WA, SA & Tasmania should be treated with caution.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Better Prime Minister: Turnbull v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Malcolm Turnbull and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Shorten?”

*The first special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on Tuesday September 15, 2015 – the day Malcolm Turnbull was sworn in as Australia’s 29^th Prime Minister replacing former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, while the second special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted immediately after the close 2016 Federal Election.