ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence dipped slightly in December, its third consecutive decline. However, the level remains robust. Both the current and future conditions indexes eased; the latter by more.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence dipped slightly in December, its third consecutive decline. However, the level remains robust.
Consumers are still feeling pretty sanguine.
- Both the current and future conditions indexes eased; the latter by more.
- Consumers appear to be pretty relaxed in the face of a cooler housing market and a change in Government, though a degree of wariness is perhaps starting to creep into the forward-looking responses.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index eased from 123.7 to 121.8 in December. That is still above historical averages, but is now 8 points off the September high.
The Current Conditions Index fell 1.3 points to 123.3, while the Future Conditions Index fell 2.2 points to 120.9.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence is holding up remarkably well in the face of a slower housing market and increased uncertainty.
- Consumers continue to feel happy about their current financial situation. A net 14% feel financially better off than a year ago. This metric has been pretty stable for the last 12 months.
- There is a little more caution about the year ahead. A net 28% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year (-1 point). That is the lowest since August 2016.
- A net 32% say it’s a good time to buy a major household item. Even so, durables spending has softened lately due to fewer house sales.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook fell again. After three consecutive monthly falls, net optimism at +13% is well off its September high of +30%. The five year outlook dipped from a net +23% to +22%.
- Confidence fell most sharply in Auckland and Canterbury (down 6½ points) and these are now the most pessimistic regions. Confidence is highest in Wellington, despite a fall (down 2.9pts to 125.9).
- National house price expectations bounced from 1.5% to 2.4%, but remain at low levels. Wellington led the bounce-back, while Canterbury expectations remain subdued.
- Inflation expectations continue to oscillate in a 3-4% range.
We suspect the strong labour market has much to do with it. However, there is a hint of wariness in the responses to the forward-looking questions. This is consistent with our belief that the economy is experiencing a bit of a lull as a number of growth drivers run out of puff around the same time (migration, housing, and construction in particular) and uncertainty weighs.
Our confidence composite gauge
(which combines business and consumer sentiment, and so covers both the production and spending sides of the economy) has taken a hit due mostly to the fall in business confidence.
However, we believe the strong terms of trade and solid household income growth will carry the economy through. Barring a negative hit from offshore (which, to be fair, tends to be New Zealand’s fate once a decade or so), this business cycle has plenty of legs yet.
Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - December 2017.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.