The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,284 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in December throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is down 0.3pts to 158.8 in December 2018. However, Consumer Confidence finished 2018 with an average of 158.1 for the year – the highest average ever achieved for a calendar year. Consumer Confidence is now 3.4pts higher than a year ago in December 2017 (155.4) and 22.7pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 136.1.
Despite a small monthly fall in December Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up by 3.4pts from a year ago driven by increases in the regions of Jakarta & West Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan.
The slight fall in December from a month ago was driven by fewer Indonesians feeling ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and fewer people saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.
Now 40% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 8% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
A decreasing majority of 69% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 3% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
In December, 91% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 8% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
And looking at the longer-term, now 95% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 5% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.
In December now 60% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 37% (up 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ December 2018 (n=1,284).
Consumer Confidence up from a year ago driven by Jakarta, West Java, Sumatra & Kalimantan
Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region shows Consumer Confidence has increased in four Indonesian regions over the last year including Jakarta, West Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan, is virtually unchanged in two others, while there have been clear declines in only two regions from a year ago.
Consumer Confidence has increased most strongly from a year ago in Southern Sumatra for which Consumer Confidence has increased 10.4pts to 157.6 while Consumer Confidence is also up by 4.4pts to 153.2 in Northern Sumatra. However, despite this increase, Consumer Confidence in Northern Sumatra remains lower than any other region in Indonesia.
Other regions to increase from a year ago are the region around the capital of Jakarta & West Java for which Consumer Confidence has increased by 6.8pts to 155.1 and also on Kalimantan. Consumer Confidence on Kalimantan is up 5.7pts from a year ago to 161.0.
The most precipitious decline of Consumer Confidence has been seen on the tourist island of Bali. Consumer Confidence on Bali has dropped 16.7pts to 155.3 over the past year and now clearly below the national average.
Consumer Confidence has also declined on the island of Sulawesi by 3.7pts to 176.4. Despite this decline from a year ago Sulawesi retains clearly the highest Consumer Confidence of any Indonesian region.
In contrast to changes throughout the rest of the country, Consumer Confidence in East Java, as well as Central Java including Yogyakarta, is virtually unchanged from a year ago.
Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Region: December 2017 cf. December 2018
Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Dec. 2017 (n=2,146) & Dec. 2018 (n=1,284).
Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:
"Indonesian Consumer Confidence finished 2018 at 158.8, virtually unchanged on November and up 3.4pts from a year ago. Consumer Confidence for the whole year set a new record annual average of 158.1, nearly 2pts higher than the previous record annual average of 156.2 in 2014.
“Driving Consumer Confidence higher in 2018 were significant increases in Consumer Confidence in the capital region of Jakarta & West Java – up 6.8pts to 155.1, in Southern Sumatra – up 10.4pts to 157.6 and on the island of Kalimantan – up 5.7pts to 161.0.
“The high Consumer Confidence in Indonesia continues to put the sentiment in neighbouring Australia and New Zealand into the shade. Indonesian Consumer Confidence is around 40pts higher than in Australia (115.7 on January 19/20, 2019) and New Zealand (121.9 in December).
“The strength of Indonesian Consumer Confidence is based on a strong belief in the health of the Indonesian economy with 91% expecting ‘good times’ for the Indonesian economy over the next year and 95% expecting ‘good times’ for the Indonesian economy over the next five years.
“This confidence in the future performance of the Indonesian economy bodes well for President Joko Widodo who is seeking re-election for a second term at the April Presidential Elections.”
The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,284 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in December throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.
Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia January 19/20, 2019 – 115.7) and New Zealand (December 2018 – 121.9) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.
For further information:
Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400
Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
|
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
|
1,000
|
±3.0
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
|
2,000
|
±2.2
|
±1.9
|
±1.3
|
±1.0
|