The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
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Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2020)
|
|
Year
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Yearly
Average
|
|
2010
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
5.5
|
5.6
|
5.4
|
5.5
|
5.8
|
5.6
|
5.8
|
5.7
|
|
2011
|
6.6
|
6.4
|
6.4
|
6.2
|
6.1
|
6.2
|
6.1
|
5.8
|
5.7
|
5.8
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
6.0
|
|
2012
|
5.4
|
5.5
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
6.0
|
6.2
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
5.7
|
5.6
|
5.4
|
5.8
|
|
2013
|
5.2
|
5.1
|
5.3
|
4.9
|
5.2
|
4.9
|
5.3
|
5.0
|
4.8
|
4.9
|
4.8
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
|
2014
|
5.1
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
5.3
|
5.0
|
4.8
|
5.0
|
4.8
|
4.9
|
4.4
|
5.0
|
|
2015
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
|
2016
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
3.9
|
4.1
|
4.1
|
3.9
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
|
2017
|
4.5
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.4
|
|
2018
|
4.5
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
|
2019
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
3.7
|
4.1
|
3.8
|
4.1
|
3.9
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
3.9
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
|
2020
|
3.9
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
3.6
|
3.3
|
3.2
|
3.4
|
3.2
|
3.3
|
3.5
|
|
|
3.5
|
|
Monthly
Average
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
|
Overall Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8
|
RBA interest rates changes during the time period measured: 2010-2020.
RBA – Interest rate increasing cycle (2010):
2010
April 2010: +0.25% to 4.25%; May 2010: +0.25% to 4.75%, November 2010: +0.25% to 5%.
RBA – Interest rate cutting cycle (2011-2013, 2015-2016 & 2019-2020):
2011
November 2011: -0.25% to 4.5%; December 2011: -0.25% to 4.25%.
2012
May 2012: -0.5% to 3.75%; June 2012: -0.25% to 3.5%; October 2012: -0.25% to 3.25%;
December 2012: -0.25% to 3%.
2013
May 2013: -0.25% to 2.75%; August 2013: -0.25% to 2.5%.
2014
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2014.
2015
February 2015: -0.25% to 2.25%; May 2015: -0.25% to 2%.
2016
May 2016: -0.25% to 1.75%; August 2016: -0.25% to 1.5%.
2017
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2017.
2018
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2018.
2019
June 2019: -0.25% to 1.25%; July 2019: -0.25% to 1%; October 2019: -0.25% to 0.75%.
2020
March 4, 2020: -0.25% to 0.5%, March 20, 2020: -0.25% to 0.25% & November 6, 2020: -0.15% to 0.10%.
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