ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 3.5pts to 109.6 in August

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down by 3.5pts to 109.6 in August.

• The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 11 points to +13. But hey, shops are shut now anyway.
• Inflation expectations lifted again to 5.1%, back at its previous high. House price inflation expectations were little changed at 6.3%.
• The four-week sampling period closed on 22 August, and it’s unlikely more than 15% of the sample was post-lockdown.

Turning to the detail:

• Perceptions of current financial situations lifted 4 points to +12%.

• A net 22% expect to be better off this time next year, down 1.

• A net 13% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, down 11 points. This is the best retail indicator in the survey.

• Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 3 points to -5%. The five-year outlook fell 5 points to +7%.

• House price inflation expectations were little changed at 6.3%. They eased in Auckland and Wellington but rose in the remainder of the North Island to the strongest levels nationwide (7.1%).

• CPI inflation expectations lifted from 4.9% to 5.1%, extremely high versus a more typical historical reading of around 3½%.

Households’ response to whether it was a good time to buy a major household item eased in August, but this may reflect that it’s likely that a few late-sample responses were taken in a time when buying a major household item was impossible. The data is pretty hypothetical in any case, given most shops are currently shut.