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The first Roy Morgan Poll conducted since Russia invaded Ukraine one week ago shows no impact on Federal Voting Intention: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,923 Australian electors aged 18+ from Thursday February 14 - Wednesday March 2, 2022 with the entire poll conducted Russian invaded Ukraine. There were 6.5% of electors (unchanged) who wouldn’t say who they support.

A special Roy Morgan Poll conducted during the first week of the Russia-Ukraine war shows no change in Federal voting intention in Australia with the ALP 56.5% still well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

Analysis by State shows small movements with support for the L-NP up slightly in Queensland and South Australia balanced out by support for the ALP rising slightly in Victoria and Western Australia.

Overall these movements are so far balancing out, but this is based on small samples of interviews in these States. There have also been extensive flooding in Queensland and now New South Wales which are clearly having a direct impact on millions of Australians.

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,923 Australian electors aged 18+ from Thursday February 24 - Wednesday March 2, 2022 with the entire poll conducted Russian invaded Ukraine. There were 6.5% of electors (unchanged) who wouldn’t say who they support.


ALP leads L-NP by 3.5% points on primary vote after Russian invasion of Ukraine

Primary support for the ALP was unchanged at 37.5% in early March following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now 3.5% points ahead of the L-NP, up 1.5% points to 34%. Support for the Greens was down 1% point to 11.5%.

Support for One Nation was unchanged at 3.5%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was down 0.5% points to 1%. Support for Other Parties was down 0.5% points at 3.5% while support for Independents was up 0.5% points to 9%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in five States, behind only in Queensland

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States, with the LNP enjoying a slight advantage in Queensland – easily their strongest state from the last Election.

The ALP’s lead in NSW has been cut since late February with the ALP now on 56% (down 0.5% points since late February) compared to the L-NP on 44% (up 0.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has increased its lead in Victoria and is now on 63.5% (up 3.5% points since late February) compared to the L-NP on 36.5% (down 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 10.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The LNP has a slight advantage in Queensland with the LNP on 51.5% (up 1.5% points since late February) level with the ALP on 48.5% (down 1.5% points). Despite the LNP’s lead this result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s lead in Western Australia is unchanged since late February with the ALP on 52% cf. L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 7.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP has a narrow lead on 52.5% (down 7% points since late February) cf. the L-NP on 47.5% (up 7% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 1.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 69.5% cf. L-NP 30.5%, representing a large swing of 13.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence was unchanged at 88 in early March

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 88 in early March. Now 36% (up 1% points) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 48%, up 1% point, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of over 40pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in South Australia on 92, New South Wales on 90, Queensland on 89.5 and Western Australia on 88.5.

In the other two States Government Confidence is below average at 86.6 in Victoria and well below average in Tasmania at only 52.5. Only 18% of Tasmanians currently think the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 65.5% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“Although this first Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted since Russia invaded Ukraine shows little overall impact it is early in the conflict and the Federal Government has so far done little to outline what Australia will be doing to help ensure a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

“Typically when there’s a major global event such as a war, or a pandemic, the public support for the Government in power rises. This special Roy Morgan Poll shows that during the first week of the conflict this hasn’t yet occurred – although it may happen if the conflict drags  on.

“One of the driving factors that increases support for the Government in power is providing leadership and increasing the confidence of the people that the Government is responding to the crisis in a constructive manner. Prime Minister Scott Morrison needs to clearly articulate how Australia can contribute towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Ukraine and outline what Australia can do – such as increasing energy exports to Europe of gas and coal so they can be less reliant on Russian energy – that will contribute to ending the current war as soon as possible.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”


Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Roy Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - March 3, 2022

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–March 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.



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