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Treasurer Josh Frydenberg increases his lead as the preferred Coalition Leader over Scott Morrison by 10% points in a month

This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on March 30-31, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,067 electors.

Now 46% of Australians (up 7.5% points since mid-February) prefer Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to lead the L-NP Government, clearly ahead of current Prime Minister Scott Morrison 28.5% (down 2.5% points) and Defence Minister Peter Dutton 14% (up 1.5% points) while 1% (down 1% point) named someone else and 10.5% (down 5.5% points) had no preference.

Importantly, among L-NP supporters it is now a virtual tie between the two with Frydenberg on 37.5% (up 5% points) just behind Morrison on 38% (down 2% points) according to a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 1,067 Australian electors conducted over the last two days this week, March 30-31, 2022.

An analysis by gender shows Frydenberg leads Morrison amongst men by 15.5% points (Frydenberg: 44.5% cf. Morrison: 29%) well up from the narrow 3% points lead held by Frydenberg in February, and by 19.5% points amongst women (Frydenberg 47.5% cf. Morrison 28%) – up from a 12% points lead.

An analysis by age shows Frydenberg with the advantage amongst younger age groups while the two are now tied amongst those aged 65+ years old:

  • 18-34 year olds: Frydenberg 53.5% (up 7% points) cf. Morrison 23.5% (up 1.5% points);
  • 35-49 year olds: Frydenberg 45.5% (up 9% points) cf. Morrison 24.5% (down 5.5% points);
  • 50-64 year olds: Frydenberg 41.5% (up 4.5% points) cf. Morrison 28% (down 1.5% points);
  • 65+ year olds: Morrison 40.5% (down 5.5% points) cf. Frydenberg 40.5% (up 7.5% points).

On a State-by-State basis Frydenberg now leads as preferred Coalition Leader in all six States. In February Morrison had held a lead in Queensland.

  • NSW: Frydenberg 39% (up 1% point) cf. Morrison 36% (up 0.5% points);
  • Victoria: Frydenberg 52% (up 8.5% points) cf. Morrison 23% (down 3% points);
  • Queensland: Frydenberg 40.5% (up 8.5% points) cf. Morrison 28.5% (down 9% points);
  • WA: Frydenberg 51% (up 12.5% points) cf. Morrison 25% (down 0.5% points);
  • SA: Frydenberg 49% (up 12% points) cf. Morrison 28.5% (down 2% points);
  • Tasmania: Frydenberg 52% (up 8.5% points) cf. Morrison 23% (down 10% points).

A look at who supporters of different parties prefer as Leader shows L-NP supporters unable to decisively split Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Prime Minister Scott Morrison but Frydenberg has a clear advantage amongst supporters of the ALP, Greens and Independents/Others.

  • L-NP supporters: Morrison 38% (down 1.5% points) cf. Frydenberg 37.5% (up 5% points);
  • ALP supporters: Frydenberg 50% (up 9.5% points) cf. Morrison 24% (down 3.5% points);
  • Greens supporters: Frydenberg 58% (up 7% points) cf. Morrison 18.5% (down 3% points);
  • Independents/Others supporters: Frydenberg 46.5% (up 15.5% points) cf. Morrison 25% (down 2% points).

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has significantly increased his lead as the favoured leader of the Coalition compared to mid-February, with 46% (up 7.5% points) of Australians now saying they would choose Frydenberg to lead the party into the next Federal Election (due to be called any day now) compared to only 28.5% (down 2.5% points) that favour Prime Minister Scott Morrison and only 14% (up 1.5% points) that favour Defence Minister Peter Dutton.

“Importantly for the Treasurer he is now almost level with the Prime Minister when it comes to L-NP supporters with those most likely to vote to re-elect the Government now virtually split between Scott Morrison (38%) and Josh Frydenberg (37.5%) with both well ahead of Peter Dutton (13.5%).

“Another key voting demographic, the over 65s who tend to vote strongly for the L-NP, are also now evenly split between Frydenberg (40.5%) and Morrison (40.5%) as to who their preferred Coalition Leader should be at the Federal Election.

“Apart from those two demographics Frydenberg is easily preferred amongst all other demographics leading by 19.5% points amongst women, 15.5% points amongst men, 20.5% points amongst people who live in the Capital Cities and 10.5% points among those living in Country Areas.

“Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is preferred by supporters of the ALP, Greens, Independents/Others as well as all age groups under 65 and preferred in all States. The closest ‘battle’ between the two is in Morrison’s home State of NSW – Frydenberg on 39% only leads Morrison on 36% by 3% points. In contrast, in Frydenberg’s home State of Victoria he holds a large 29% points advantage: Frydenberg 52% cf. Morrison 23%.

“The results of this special Roy Morgan SMS Poll show that if the L-NP Government wants to maximise its chances of re-election this year it must make a late change and elevate Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to the top job. Such a move is not unprecedented, as former long-serving Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke only became the leader of the Labour Party on the day the 1983 Federal Election was called by then Prime Minister Malcom Fraser.

“The latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 55.5% holds a large two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 44.5% with the Federal Election due to be called any day now.”

This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on March 30-31, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,067 electors.


Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention

Feb 14-15,
2022

Mar 30-31,

2022

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Other

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

38.5

46

37.5

50

58

46.5

48.5

Morrison

31

28.5

38

24

18.5

25

24

Dutton

12.5

14

13.5

15.5

7.5

19

14.5

Someone else

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

None/ Can’t say

16

10.5

10

9.5

15

9.5

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Gender & Age

Interviewing Dates

Gender

Age

Feb 14-15,
2022

Mar 30-31,

2022

Men

Women

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

38.5

46

44.5

47.5

53.5

45.5

41.5

40.5

Morrison

31

28.5

29

28

23.5

24.5

28

40.5

Dutton

12.5

14

16.5

11.5

13.5

17

14.5

9.5

Someone else

2

1

1.5

0.5

0

2.5

1

1.5

None/ Can’t say

16

10.5

8.5

12.5

9.5

10.5

15

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by State & Region

Interviewing Dates

Region

State

Feb 14-15,
2022

Mar 30-31,

2022

Capital
Cities

Country Areas

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

38.5

46

49

39.5

39

52

40.5

51

49

52

Morrison

31

28.5

28.5

29

36

23

28.5

25

28.5

23

Dutton

12.5

14

12

18

15.5

12.5

20.5

7

8.5

15.5

Someone else

2

1

0.5

2

0.5

0.5

2

2.5

1.5

1.5

None/ Can’t say

16

10.5

10

11.5

9

12

8.5

14.5

12.5

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.




Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Feb 14-15,
2022

Mar 30-31,

2022

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Other#

Can’t say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

47

52

42

56

69

51

56

Morrison

38

32

43

27

22

28

27

Dutton

15

16

15

17

9

21

17

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Gender & Age (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Interviewing Dates

Gender

Age

Feb 14-15,
2022

Mar 30-31,
2022

Men

Women

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

47

52

50

55

59

52

50

45

Morrison

38

32

32

32

26

28

33

45

Dutton

15

16

18

13

15

20

17

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by State & Region (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Interviewing Dates

Region

State

Feb 14-15,
2022

Mar 30-31,
2022

Capital
Cities

Country Areas

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

47

52

55

46

43

60

45

62

57

58

Morrison

38

32

32

33

40

26

32

30

33

25

Dutton

15

16

13

21

17

14

23

8

10

17

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.